Let Zelaya Return

Having been ousted in a military coup last week and forced into exile, President Zelaya has boarded a plane to return to Honduras and is flying there as we speak. Honduran military leaders have vowed to arrest him for treason if he lands, which will fan the flames in the short-term and may prove to be a mistake on their part in the long-term.

The response outside of Honduras is notable for the broad support which Zelaya has received despite being closely allied with the normally unpopular President Chavez. Obama has thrown his support behind the exiled President, the World Bank has threatened to suspend aid if Zelaya is not reinstated and Chavez went as far as to threaten an invasion.

Yet for all the verbal support, little has been done so far. Realists would argue that this is because, despite a clear breach of a previously stable democracy, it is not in the interests of any would-be interveners to act in this instance (with the possible exception of Venezuela). The U.S would have been the most likely but with troops still stationed in Iraq and the current 'surge' in Afghanistan they would be loathed spread their troops any further. Add to this the fact that Honduras consumes less than 0.5% of U.S total exports, there is little danger to the U.S economically. Furthermore, with the politics of Latin America shifting to the 'right' in recent years, they will see little political danger in another 'left-leaning' ally of Chavez disappearing from power.

The real reason, however, may be Zelaya's decaying support in Honduras. It is difficult to restore a leader, even in the name of democracy, who is no longer wanted by the vast majority of his people. Having won election by a margin of less than 4% on a 'tough on crime' mantra, his approval ratings have fallen to the low 30s owing to, among other things, a significant rise in crime during his presidency. Significant changes in policy positions, attempts at dubious constitutional reforms (to allow him to serve further terms in office) and poor fiscal management have characterised his time in office and undermined his support to the point where he would struggle to wield much power should he return to office. In addition, with only 6 months left of his last term in office (despite his best efforts), most countries will take the pragmatic position that it's just not worth the hassle to muscle him back into power.

Were Zelaya to be arrested, however, it may shame the international community into action. Thus opponents may be wiser to let him see out his final hours in office as a 'lame duck', rather than impulsively wrestling him from power before his time is up. Patience would most certainly be a virtue here, but this is Latin American politics so we shall have to wait and see what happens.

ADJB