Time for some Tough Love?

The path to a peaceful resolution to the Arab-Israeli conflict in the Middle East has been a difficult one, to say the least. The last 60 years have been characterised by wars interspersed with random acts of violence from both sides. An estimated 100,000 people have been killed and one report speculates the opportunity cost to both sides from 1991-2010 is somewhere in the region of $12 trillion. The fact that so much is at stake for both sides from a religious standpoint is largely to blame for the lack of progress over this time. Utilised effectively, however, it could be the reason both sides come to the table as the potential upside of a peaceful settlement is huge for both.

On a positive note, as argued in this article, some of the major points of a potential agreement have already got broad support from both sides: borders will largely return to those of 1967 (with a few land swaps necessary to achieve this), a Palestinian state will be established (I find it shocking that this should ever have been disputed) and the right of return to Israel for Palestinians (though this must not happen to any great extent in practice if the agreement is to hold).

For any agreement to happen, however, the U.S must utilise the 'stick' more effectively. Netanyahu has been able to let settlements balloon in size in defiance of America's requests whilst pocketing $3 billion per year in foreign direct aid (Palestine, in turn, receives no aid). Palestinian leaders, on the other hand, have refused to crack down on terrorists, and in some cases encourage them, with very little pressure from the U.S. In these areas the U.S has the power to force both sides to the table if it is bold enough. For a lasting agreement to be reached, both sides must desperately want to end the status quo and see compromises on issues such as Jerusalem as the lesser of two evils.

Whilst Netanyahu is reluctant to compromise, he surely knows that Israel would be staggeringly vulnerable without U.S aid and his stance would likely change should the U.S show any willingness to cut this aid. The situation in Palestine also looks more promising with big wins possible for the more moderate Fatah party in the January elections.

The path to peace is now a realistic goal if the leaders of both sides can come together. For this to happen, America must first assume its role as an even-handed arbitrator and make the difficult choices. If ever the status quo could be broken it is under the dynamic and popular leadership of President Obama but he must seize the moment far earlier in his presidency than his predecessors. Were he to do this, he might just live up to the messianic status he holds across much of the world.

ADJB